by Paul B Farrell
You tell us: where should investors put their money to "make a difference"? In "
Conscious Capitalism: Liberating the Heroic Spirit of Business," the new book by John Mackey and Raj Sisodia, co-founders to Whole Foods Markets, the mission is clear.
“We believe,” they write, “that business is good because it creates value, it
is ethical because it is based on voluntary exchange, it is noble because it can
elevate our existence, and it is heroic because it lifts people out of poverty
and creates prosperity. Free-enterprise capitalism is the most powerful system
for social cooperation and human progress ever conceived.”
“Conscious capitalist” companies include Southwest Airlines, Costco, Google,
Patagonia, the Container Store, UPS and dozens of
others. Their group has been together for years. Hopefully in the next
generation, organizations like Cargill, Exxon Mobil, Massey Coal, Du Pont, J.P.
Morgan and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will join Mackey and Sisodia’s Conscious
Capitalism after their consciences and bottom lines are shocked awake by public
pressure following a huge catastrophe.
12 macroeconomic sectors: Make a difference, get rich, save planet
So how should you invest if you want to make a difference, make a decent
return — and make sure Planet Earth is here in 2050 for your children? We want
your input. Yes, you could just invest in Whole Foods and other “conscious capitalists.”
You can also take the long-term perspective, one we’ve been exploring since
putting together an investment-research model based on the 12-part formula in
anthropologist Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or
Succeed.” He analyzed 12 macroeconomic sectors that for centuries influenced
whether and how nations and economies self-destruct or survive.
In recent years we’ve used this 12-part formula to analyze future macrotrends
and individual investment opportunities that lead to survival and challenges for
nations.
Diamond says that as global population increases, “more people require more
food, space, water, energy, and other resources,” triggering wars, famine,
pandemics and political miscalculations, threatening economic growth. So we’ll
take a broader look at our future using the 12 macrotrends in our model, to see
how “conscious” and conscientious these capitalists really are, with 18 examples
of how they plan to protect the planet for 10 billion inhabitants in 2050.”
1. Food: Buy hot commodities, become a farmer
“If you want to become rich, become a farmer,” says Jim Rogers, co-founder
with George Soros in the Quantum Fund, in “Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can
Invest Profitably in the World’s Best Market.” The United Nations, IMF and World
Bank estimate over a billion of the planet’s 7 billion people are poor, half are
underfed, living on what amounts to $2 a day. Most are farmers, subsistence
farmers.
Monsanto and other agricultural giants have a huge
stake in the future of large and small farmers, in fertilizers, pesticides,
irrigation systems, genetically engineered seeds. The challenge is daunting.
U.S. money manager Jeremy Grantham says the planet can’t feed 3 billion more
people. Others focus on commercial opportunities. So if you want to get rich in
the near future, “become a farmer,” and invest in commodities.
2. Agriculture: land banking, land development
Billionaire investors and nations see value: Having farmlands in your
portfolio is a solid bet on the future of both developed economies and emerging
nations. Critics call it land grabbing, where rich nations buy the agricultural
assets of poorer nations. But rich or poor, populations are exploding, demanding
better lifestyles, and all need more food.
So today there’s a rally in productive agricultural properties, thanks to
possible 25% returns. Check out the list of 416 land grabs from Grain.org with
large-scale real-estate deals in 66 counties, more than 85 million acres, more
coming.
3. Water: the new gold for 21st-century investors
Warren Buffett says buy what you know. Well, buy water. It’s everywhere,
essential for drinking, industry, agriculture, transportation. A couple of years
ago, Fortune said: “Water is the new gold in the 21st century.” Water generated
over a half-trillion dollars in revenue worldwide in 2010.
As global population accelerates from 7 billion today to 10 billion by 2050,
and more than a billion “lack access to clean drinking water,” it will soon
“trade like oil futures. For many, water is more valuable than fuel. Consider
bottled-water companies, soft drinks, purification, desalination. Buy water.
4. Forest lands: rapid conversion as world urbanizes
The demand for lumber and urban lands is exploding with population growth.
China and India are planning 500 new cities. Half the world’s original rain
forests and natural habitats have already been sacrificed to development, adding
resource demands and pollution. A quarter more will be converted in the next 50
years.
Soils are “being carried away by water and wind erosion at rates between 10
to 40 times the rates of soil formation,” much higher in forests where
soil-erosion rate is “between 500 and 10,000 times” replacement rate, due to
vastly increasing megafires.
5. Energy: Oil, coal, natural gas, fossil fuels at the peak
OK, so you’re not a cash-rich nation or super-rich billionaire. Check out
mutual funds like Vanguard and Pimco — they manage hundreds of billions in oil
and natural-gas equities, bonds and commodity funds. Pimco’s Bill Gross predicts
a “significant break” in the world’s “growth pattern” and is betting we’re past
the “peak oil” tipping point.
His New Normal strategy accounts for a decline in consumer shopping as
economies grow slower and “corporate profits will be static.” But with
population exploding, every investor’s portfolio needs energy stocks and funds.
6. Alternative energies: biofuels, wind, nuclear at 20%
In “The Quest,” Daniel Yergin, one of the world’s most respected energy
experts, says alternative energies will remain a niche market for decades, while
fossil fuels will be 80% of the total in 2050. And the journal Foreign Policy
confirms Yergin’s forecast in “The 7 Myths About Alternative Energy.”
Biofuels, solar, wind and nuclear many not be the “major ticket.” But with
the global economies in excess of $80 trillion annually and with America
spending over a trillion dollars annually on total energy usage, 20% on
alternatives may grow even faster as fossil-fuel production costs increase.
7. Solar Power: space rockets and robots mining asteroids
We know sunlight is not unlimited, that we could reach max use by mid-century.
But enlightened minds are already investing heavily in innovative alternatives,
such as fuel cells and batteries.
And when the Mars Rover project shut down, Silicon Valley investors
essentially privatized the Mars engineering team tasked to build new rockets and
robots to explore and mine 10,000 asteroids for energy resources potentially
worth trillions.
8. Ozone-layer protection: geoengineering climate change
Yes, human activities, autos and manufacturing plants produce carbon dioxide
and other gases that escape into the atmosphere and destroy the protective ozone
or absorb and reduce solar energy. Innovative geoengineering plans are under
development to explore the use of space rockets to block harmful rays, reduce
global warming and climate change.
9. Chemicals, minerals, mining: economic growth and public health
Diamond says human solutions have unintended consequences. For example,
mining generates economic growth and also dumps toxins into the air, soil,
rivers, lakes and oceans that break down too slowly or not at all — from
insecticides, pesticides, herbicides, detergents, plastics. Balance is essential
between economic growth and public health, with solutions more in the realm of
politics, lobbying, government regulations at odds with business plans.
10. Species diversity: Variety isn’t always the ‘spice of life’
Diamond explores the consequences of transferring native species to new
lands, causing the unpredictable “preying on, parasitizing, infecting or
outcompeting” of native animals and plants that lack evolutionary resistance,
and infect native species with new diseases.
“A significant fraction of wild species, populations and genetic diversity
has been lost, and at present rates a large percent of the rest will disappear
in half a century.” The solution requires innovations and trade restrictions
unavailable to most investors.
11. Population: a world out of-control, 10 billion by 2050
A special issue of Scientific American calls population “the most overlooked
and essential strategy for achieving long-term balance with the environment.” By
2050 world population will grow from 7 billion to 10 billion, with 1.4 billion
each in China and India.
Yes, experts challenge the projections, but even Bill Gates’s 8.3 billion
projection may be too much to handle. Earth Institute director Jeffrey Sachs
says even 5 billion is unsustainable. Meanwhile, Gates is working on
population-control initiatives in vaccines, family planning.
12. Population lifestyles: American Dream goes global, demanding more
Worldwide, most people now have their own version of the American Dream. In
fact, we are all capitalists: the rich, middle class and even the poor. Witness
microloans in India and luxury-car sales in China.
The problem, says Diamond, is that if all nations consumed resources at the
same rate as America — 32 times more resources — and dump 32 times more waste,
we’d need six Earths to survive, which will eventually force even hard-right
capitalists like the Koch brothers to embrace environmentalism.
Saving the planet takes political will, leaders and long-term thinking
Bottom line: The world needs new leaders fast, says Diamond. Leaders with
“the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous,
anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but
before they reach crisis proportions.”
Unfortunately, history tells us that leaders all too often tend to respond to
short-term crises, focus on economic growth and fail to plan ahead for
predictable disasters, droughts, pandemics, famines, global warming. And so they
act too little, too late. Eventually caught off-guard, they collapse fast.
Comments: What would you do? Where to invest? Focusing on what sectors?
Specific assets and investments? What kind of long-range policies are essential
to be a conscious capitalist and conscientious citizen committed to protecting
the planet for generations into the 22nd century.
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